Five years of observations of ozone profiles over Lauder, New Zealand

Altitude profiles of ozone (O3) over Lauder (45°S, 170°E) performed using a lidar, ozonesondes, and the satellite-borne Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) instrument are presented. These data form one of the few long-term sets of O3 profiles at a Southern Hemisphere location. In the 5 years of data presented, the dominant variation is the annual cycle, the phase and amplitude of which differ below and above 27.5 km. Superposed are irregular episodic variations, caused by various processes. The first process studied is stratosphere-troposphere exchange, characterized by dry and O3-rich air residing in the troposphere, which was found in 21% of the measurements. The second relates to the positioning of the higher polar vortex over Lauder, often in combination with the exchange of air between midlatitude and subtropical stratospheric regions. We present examples of this which were observed over Lauder during the 1997 winter. This winter was selected for further study because of the record-low O3 amounts measured. The third process is mixing of O3-depleted vortex air with midlatitude air after the vortex breakup. We present one example, which shows that a filament originating from the depleted Antarctic vortex significantly lowers O3 amounts over Lauder around 27 November 1997. There is thus a connection between Antarctic O3 depletion and later decrease of O3 amounts at a Southern Hemisphere midlatitude location, namely Lauder

Impact of sudden Arctic sea-ice loss on stratospheric polar ozone recovery

We investigate the sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere polar ozone recovery to a scenario in which there is rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice in the first half of the 21st century. The issue is addressed by coupling a chemistry climate model to an ocean general circulation model and performing simulations of ozone recovery with, and without, an external perturbation designed to cause a rapid and complete loss of summertime Arctic sea ice. Under this extreme perturbation, the stratospheric response takes the form of a springtime polar cooling which is dynamical rather than radiative in origin, and is caused by reduced wave forcing from the troposphere. The response lags the onset of the sea-ice perturbation by about one decade and lasts for more than two decades, and is associated with an enhanced weakening of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The stratospheric dynamical response leads to a 10 DU reduction in polar column ozone, which is statistically robust. While this represents a modest loss, it has the potential to induce a delay of roughly one decade in Arctic ozone recovery estimates made in the 2006 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion

Effects of stratosphere-troposphere chemistry coupling on tropospheric ozone

A new, computationally efficient coupled stratosphere-troposphere chemistry-climate model (S/T-CCM) has been developed based on three well-documented components: a 64-level general circulation model from the UK Met Office Unified Model, the tropospheric chemistry transport model (STOCHEM), and the UMSLIMCAT stratospheric chemistry module. This newly developed S/T-CCM has been evaluated with various observations, and it shows good performance in simulating important chemical species and their interdependence in both the troposphere and stratosphere. The modeled total column ozone agrees well with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer observations. Modeled ozone profiles in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are significantly improved compared to runs with the stratospheric chemistry and tropospheric chemistry models alone, and they are in good agreement with Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding satellite ozone profiles. The observed CO tape recorder is also successfully captured by the new CCM, and ozone-CO correlations are in accordance with Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment observations. However, because of limitations in vertical resolution, intrusion of CO-rich air in the stratosphere from the mesosphere could not be simulated in the current version of S/T-CCM. Additionally, the simulated stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux, which controls upper tropospheric OH and O3 concentrations, is found to be more realistic in the new coupled model compared to STOCHEM. © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union

Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed

Toward evaluating the effect of climate change on investments in the water resources sector: insights from the forecast and analysis of hydrological indicators in developing countries

The World Bank has recently developed a method to evaluate the effects of climate change on six hydrological indicators across 8951 basins of the world. The indicators are designed for decision-makers and stakeholders to consider climate risk when planning water resources and related infrastructure investments. Analysis of these hydrological indicators shows that, on average, mean annual runoff will decline in southern Europe; most of Africa; and in southern North America and most of Central and South America. Mean reference crop water deficit, on the other hand, combines temperature and precipitation and is anticipated to increase in nearly all locations globally due to rising global temperatures, with the most dramatic increases projected to occur in southern Europe, southeastern Asia, and parts of South America. These results suggest overall guidance on which regions to focus water infrastructure solutions that could address future runoff flow uncertainty. Most important, we find that uncertainty in projections of mean annual runoff and high runoff events is higher in poorer countries, and increases over time. Uncertainty increases over time for all income categories, but basins in the lower and lower-middle income categories are forecast to experience dramatically higher increases in uncertainty relative to those in the upper-middle and upper income categories. The enhanced understanding of the uncertainty of climate projections for the water sector that this work provides strongly support the adoption of rigorous approaches to infrastructure design under uncertainty, as well as design that incorporates a high degree of flexibility, in response to both risk of damage and opportunity to exploit water supply 'windfalls' that might result, but would require smart infrastructure investments to manage to the greatest benefit

The contribution of ozone to future stratospheric temperature trends

The projected recovery of ozone from the effects of ozone depleting substances this century will offset part of the stratospheric cooling due to CO2, thereby affecting the detection and attribution of stratospheric temperature trends. Here, the impact of future ozone changes on stratospheric temperatures is quantified for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using simulations from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For models with interactive chemistry, ozone trends offset ~50% of the global annual mean upper stratospheric cooling due to CO2 for RCP4.5, and 20% for RCP8.5 between 2006-15 and 2090-99. For RCP2.6, ozone trends cause a net warming of the upper and lower stratosphere. The misspecification of ozone trends for RCP2.6/4.5 in models that used the IGAC/SPARC Ozone Database causes anomalous warming (cooling) of the upper (lower) stratosphere compared to chemistry-climate models. The dependence of ozone chemistry on greenhouse gas concentrations should therefore be better represented in CMIP6

A Methodology for the Vulnerability Analysis of the Climate Change in the Oromia Region, Ethiopia

Goal of the vulnerability research of the last years is to evaluate which community, region, or nation is more vulnerable in terms of its sensitive to damaging effects of extreme meteorological events like floods or droughts. Ethiopia is a country where it is possible to find the described conditions. Aim of this work was to develop an integrated system of early warning and response, whereas neither landmark data nor vulnerability drought analysis existed in the country. Specifically, a vulnerability index and a capacity to react index of the population of three Woredas in the Oromia Region of Ethiopia were determined and analysed. Input data concerned rainfall, water availability, physical land characteristics, agricultural and livestock dimensions, as well as population and socio-economic indices. Data were collected during a specific NGO project and thanks to a field research funded by the University of Torino. Results were analysed and specific maps were drawn. The mapping of the vulnerability indices revealed that the more isolated Woreda with less communication roads and with less water sources presented the worst data almost on all its territory. Despite not bad vulnerability indices in the other two Woredas, however, population here still encountered difficulty to adapt to sudden climatic changes, as revealed by the other index of capacity to reaction. Beyond the interpretation of each parameter, a more complete reading key was possible using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) beside these indicators. In a normalized scale between 0 and 1, in this study the calculated annual SPI index was 0.83: the area is therefore considerably exposed to the drought risk, caused by an high intensity and frequency of rainfall lack

Tracking Climate Change Vulnerability at Municipal Level in Rural Haiti Using Open Data

In least developed tropical countries, vulnerability to climate change (CC) at local scale follows an indicator-based approach and uses information gathered mainly through household surveys or focus groups. Conceived in this way, the vulnerability assessment is rarely repeatable in time, cannot be compared with those carried out in other contexts and usually has low spatial coverage. The growing availability of open source information at municipal level, routinely col-lected, now allows us to switch to vulnerability tracking (continuous, low cost, consistent with global monitoring systems). The aim of this chapter is to propose and verify the applicability of a VICC-Vulnerability Index to Climate Change on a municipal scale for Haiti. The chapter identifies open source information on na-tional, departmental and municipal scale, selects the information on a municipal scale on the basis of quality, identifies the indicators, evaluates the robustness of the index and measures it. The index consists of 10 indicators created using infor-mation relating to monthly precipitations, population density, flood prone areas, crop deficit, farmers for self-consumption, rural accessibility, local plans for CC adaptation, irrigated agriculture and cholera incidence. This information is gath-ered for the 125 mainly rural municipalities of Haiti. The description and discus-sion of the results in followed by suggestions to improve the index aimed at do-nors, local authorities and users